Once again, the Broncos are in one of the best football games of the weekend. Denver V Baltimore. When John Jesus Krishna Clayton (He prefers JC for short) predicted we would go 3-13 if we were lucky, it was hard to imagine that we would be the highlight game 3 out of 4 weeks in a row. Furthermore, we will be the highlight game next Monday against Pit, we will be the highlight game two weeks later with SD, then the Giants, and two weeks after that against IND. Guess that is what happens when a really good team plays a really tough schedule.
- General Pace of the Game: This game is going to be for football lovers, not casual fans. The punters are going to get a workout. Likely, the FG kickers will oft be in action. Both teams have the same general game strategy: Hit ‘em in the gut, hit ‘em hard, win the field position battle – win the game. The thing that worries me about the chances of going far in the playoffs starts with this stretch of “great games” – we are playing bal, pit, nyg, philly, and for the sake of this argument, oak … those are a lot of physical defenses and opportunities to get hurt.
- Offense: In my previous post, I spent most of the time talking about either turn overs or the defense (in some cases, both). I want to focus a little more on strategy this week. The middle of Baltimore’s defense is ferocious. Ray “the knife” Lewis still has it and Terrell Suggs is flat out great, and they have the best true NT in the game. The McD game plan philosophy is simple: avoid & neutralize their strengths while exploiting their weaknesses. When looking at their D, you can bet we are going to look to avoid the middle of the field. I expect to see buckhalter and YesShon! attacking the perimeter more than in previous weeks. We will have to go between the tackles to keep them honest, however. And while I have been calling Hillis’ number for weeks now, I would prefer to use Jordan up the gut (I don’t want to risk Lewis killin Hillis). That is not to say I don’t want a lot of Hillis action though. The next phase of the game is neutralizing their weakness. We need to for them into nickel and dime packages a lot. That means 3 and 4 wide out sets.
For every bit as good as the middle of their defense has been, their perimeter (particularly CBs) are not good. In fact, without Cortland Finnegan, their CBs are weak. So, forcing them into a nickel where they have to put their 3rd best CB in place of Ray Lewis sounds like a great deal. Better yet, in the dime they also take Suggs off the field. So what does that look like for denver?
- The speed set. 4 true receivers. Marshall, Royal, Gaffney, Stokely. It is a basic double slot set where the under guys look to work the sideline, Marshall works the sideline deep, and Royal starts wide and looks to create a deep seem down the middle. Probably my least favorite option, but this one almost assure Ray Lewis to be on the sideline.
- 3WR and a TE. Normally I like sheffler as the receiving TE. Not this week. While he is a monster match up for every defense and my feature prominently in the 2nd half, I prefer a set where Graham (or Quinn) is the big target. Honestly, those guys are just more physical and will wear them out more quickly.
- My favorite option. A single back (Hillis), Single TE (Probably Graham, but Quinn would be fine), 3 WR set. The TE stays in pass protection and Hillis goes wide. Lewis is already off the field, so when we throw a quick out to Hillis, he gets to (literally) run over their smaller corners and safeties. Look for this set at key junctures in games and look for us to use it to set the pace for physicality early. I think this set is money.
- One final set that I think will be really difficult for Bal to play against … a 2WR, 2TE, 2Back set. Brandon and Eddie split wide, Graham and Sheff at TE, and Hillis and YesShon as the backs. After using Graham in the passing game, they will have to respect him as a target, as with Hillis. This set is a monster option because the D has no idea who the targets are at the line of scrimmage. While there is honestly a max of 4 check downs (and maybe a dump option), all players from the D point of view are viable. I don’t expect to see this much in the passing game because it leaves their middle of the field with its best personnel, but it might be used in really obvious running situations for misdirection.
- Goal line. Denver must find a way to get goal line yardage against their D line, otherwise my fantasy kicker could have a big day (not good from the POV of this post). This is the one situation where I want Hillis to be the ball carrier against Lewis and company. I also think we need to use the 3TE set here to establish the line of scrimmage. Besides, that still leaves Sheffler and B Marsh as passing targets on the goal line. Plain and simple though, we need to score TDs.
- Defense. Every week is a favorable match up for your defense when you have the best defense in football. This week is no exception. There are several things I like this week for this matchup.
- Flacco is still learning his checkdowns, which is obvious because he can hold on to the ball too long.
- This is a very bad defense to hold on to the ball too long against.
- FEAR: There are always two sides of a coin. This stare is the strikes fear into the hearts of 31 men in the NFL. However, Vincent Jackson, Randy Moss, and Roy Williams do not scare Champ Bailey. Do you think he is afraid of old man Derrick Mason? Their receivers are nothing special and will have a very tough time finding space and creating separation against our secondary. This will make Flacco hold on to the ball longer.
- I expect DOOM to have some more sacks, but I also think it will be a quiet 1st half for him because their game plan will be to double team him.
- To adjust for this, expect Denver to send DJ up the gut and and make Flacco look like this. One hit like that, and that will be the end of double teaming DOOM.
- RUN D. This is the key to the game. BAL has a great running game and we must stop the run. Making them one dimensional is a guaranteed win for us. This goes back to our secondary discussion. Because their receivers are not that good and because Goodman is the most underrated CB in the league and we have a guy named Champ, we have really good options for this. 1. Move B. Dawk into the box frequently. This will punish their running game. It also makes him a ligit threat for the safety blitz. See above strategies for freeing up DOOM.
- We must prevent them from 3rd and short as BAL has one of the best 3rd conversion percentages – all related to the efficiency of their run D.
- Keys to the Game:
- I mentioned in my last novella of a post – we must figure out a way to get things going in the 1st quarter. This is more important this week than any previous.
- Use the score board to your advantage. Sounds obvious – but if we can get up on BAL by 10-14 early, they are more likely to abandon the run. They will not beat us by passing and our defenders are less likely to be injured.
- Special Teams: I didn’t focus on this through the rest of the post. I should have. We have a new punter whose specialty is field position. This is going to be key in this game. No more line drive punts, no more touchbacks when punting from the opponents 45. Both are unacceptable. Also, I alluded to this earlier … but Spencer Larsen is back, healthy, and ready to take someone’s head off. Having your gunner on coverage teams is key, and Larsen is actually one of the best in the game. If he doesn’t decapitate the ball carrier, he takes out 3 guys trying to do so. Look for this to be the most improved phase of our game.
- Blitz: Like playing SD, over committing on blitz packages leaves bubble screens wide open. BAL loves this play as much as Norv “the playground bully” loves to pile extra touchdowns on KC. We were burned early against SD with this type of play, but adjusted extremely well to it in the 2nd half. I expect BAL to try it early and often. I don’t expect it to work.
- Blitz: Dump their QB. Its Nolan’s philosophy, so expect heat up the middle early and from the outside the rest of the game. BAL has only given up 7 sacks in 3 games …. I expect close to that many tomorrow. However, only if we can establish the line of scrimmage and get ahead on the score board.
My Prediction: Denver 26, Baltimore 16